Like with my warning for assassinations, this could be a doubling down of bad predictions, but I fear it is not. While it doesn’t happen often, I do occasionally get my predictions wrong. One of my biggest fails prediction wise this year has been the last minute call of Marin Le Pen to win the prime minister election. Obviously I was wrong, though I did warn in my 2017 predictions page that this was a hard one to call due to the fluidity surrounding the race. Despite this seeming inaccuracy, however, the French aren’t out of the woods of Le Pen just yet. Emmanuel Macron, who I initially thought could defeat Le Pen and then faltered due to his conservative policies, is not secure as prime minister and upcoming parliamentary elections next month will prove that. Not expecting a victory, Macron has yet to build the kind of party infrastructure necessary to build a governing coalition to rule the country. With much angst and bitterness still present towards him, left apathy could doom him when he tries to build a government in support of his policies.
This is a situation that Marine Le Pen, who performed better than expected, could strike on to become prime minister by force. A Le Pen coup would be more devastating for the nation of France than if she were to win by the popular vote. The plan by socialists to oust Le Pen undemocratically if she would have won over Macron will come to bite them in the ass in the near future if she decides to take their plan and run with it for her purposes. Her party, the National Front, is more organized and in a position to pull such an undemocratic coup off; especially if Macron’s party can’t garner a majority vote in June. Geert Wilders, the defeated far right candidate of the Netherlands, may also try this tactic and succeed where an electoral win did not. Don’t count out the danger of these nationalist parties just yet. If Le Pen can’t win through democratic means, she may end up becoming the victor through undemocratic means instead. If this occurs, I can still call this as a partial fulfillment; even if its shape took an odd turn for the worst.